摘要
就业是民生之本，关乎人民的生活质量与社会稳定。我国是人口大国，一直以来都存在社会就业压力的难题。西藏经济发展虽然起步较晚，但是近几年也逐渐出现劳动力剩余与结构性失业等引起的就业问题。配第-克拉克定律为我们解决就业难题指明了方向，该定律表明：劳动力在三大产业间的转移趋势是由第一产业向第二产业转移，其次由第二产业向第三产业转移。政府与众多学者认为当前发展第三产业是缓解就业压力和稳定社会的重要渠道。西藏的第一产业生产力不发达，仍处于自然经济向商品经济的转化阶段，农牧业吸纳了约44%的劳动力，如此巨大的就业比例正处于下降趋势。西藏的第二产业是“嵌入式”工业，生产力水平低且辐射能力弱，就业比重不足15%,就业吸纳能力非常弱，因此第二产业的发展对解决西藏的就业问题作用不大。虽然西藏第三产业的发展基础薄弱，但其拥有“后发优势”,在国家和各兄弟省份的援助下发展很快。目前西藏第三产业的产值比重已经占据三大产业的首位，其就业比重已经超过 40%并处于稳步上升状态，具有超越第一产业的趋势和潜力。由于西藏第一产业的劳动力已经达到饱和并产生剩余劳动力，第二产业对就业的吸纳能力弱，因此西藏解决就业问题的重任就落到第三产业上。通过实证研究西藏第三产业发展对就业效应的影响，探讨西藏第三产业促进就业的对策建议，对有效解决西藏的就业具有重要的现实意义。
本文使用实证分析与规范分析相结合，定量分析与定性分析相结合的研究方法。在梳理国内外学者关于第三产业对就业影响的理论基础上，通过研究西藏第三产业“就业吸纳弹性”和“产业结构偏离度”以及“就业比例”等指标，对西藏的三大产业、第三产业、第三产业内部各行业的就业带动效应进行分析；通过回归分析西藏第三产业增加值对第三产业就业人数的影响，研究结果表明西藏第三产业对就业具有明显的正效应。结论也进一步证明，西藏第三产业是承接劳动力就业最有能力和潜力的产业。虽然目前西藏第三产业的就业比重仍要略低于第一产业，但就其发展趋势看，第三产业有望成为产值比重和就业比重的“双首”产业，对西藏的经济发展和社会就业影响深远。
然而西藏第三产业内部结构水平与全国平均水平相比存在一定差距，传统服务业如批发零售业、住宿餐饮业的就业吸纳能力较高，而现代服务业如金融业、房地产业的就业吸纳容量小，行业发展力度不足，有待于未来加强发展带动就业。基于以上，我们认为要提高西藏第三产业就业效应，一应从西藏第三产业整体角度出发，引导第一产业剩余劳动力向第三产业转移；二应从西藏第三产业内部行业角度出发，大力发展劳动密集型行业，如批发零售业、住宿餐饮业；稳定发展生产性服务业，如交通运输、仓储及邮政业；顺应市场发展新兴服务业，如金融业、房地产业。从而在质与量上提高西藏第三产业的就业效应。
关键词： 西藏，第三产业，就业效应，实证分析
ABSTRACT
Employment is vital to people's livelihood, it is related to people'squality of life and social stability. China is the country with the largestpopulation in the world, which has been under the pressure ofemployment for a long time. Economic development in Tibet, thoughstarted late, gradually appears labor saturation problem in recent years. 'sThe law of Petty-Clark teaches us how to solve the employment problem.
The law shows that labor in the three industries transferred from the firstindustry to the second industry, followed by the second industry to thethird industry. The government and many scholars consider thedevelopment of the third industry as the method to relieve the pressure onemployment and social stability. Tibet's first industrial productive force isnot developed, it is still at the transformation stage from the naturaleconomy to the commodity economy. Agriculture and animal husbandryhas absorbed about 44% of the workforce,however the huge employmentproportion is declining. The second industry is the “embedded” industrywith low level of productivity and low radiation capacity. Employmentproportion of it is under 15%, which is inferior to solve Tibet'semployment. Although Tibet's third industry has a weak developmentfoundation, it has a “post advantage” and develops rapidly under theassociation of brother provinces.Currently,Tibet's third industry outputvalue has occupied the first place in the three industries, and itsemployment proportion has exceeded 40% and is in a steady upwardtrend. Tibet's third industry has potential to surpass the first industry. Asthe first industry in Tibet has reached saturation and produces surpluslabor, the second industry is weak, the important task of solving theemployment problem in Tibet falls into the third industry. Empiricalresearch on the influence of employment by the third industrydevelopment and finding policy suggestion to promote employment hasan important practical significance for solving employment problem inTibet.
This article uses empirical analysis and normative analysis,quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis,standing on the theoreticalbasis of many predecessors and integrades the theory with the practice ofpromoting employment by third industry. This paper also uses descriptivestatistics, computing 'employment flexibility' and 'industrial structuredeviation degree' and employment proportion index to deep analysis theinfluence of the third industry in promoting employment in Tibet. At thesame time, we use econometric regression analysis to explore theinfluence of added value of the third industry in Tibet to employment,combing with the added value of the three major industries influence ontotal employment, which further test and verify that Tibet's third industryhas a positive effect on employment. Conclusion shows that the thirdindustry in Tibet is the most capable industry of undertaking laboremployment. Although the Tibetan employment proportion of the thirdindustry is still slightly less than the first industry, but it is expected tobecome the 'double first' industry which has the biggest output valueproportion and employment proportion. Tibet's third industry has had aprofound impact on economic development and social employment.
Though this industry has a low level of internal structure, traditionalservice industry such as wholesale and retail trade, accommodationcatering industry's employment absorption capacity is higher. Modernservice industries such as finance, real estate's employment absorptioncapacity is small, they are subject to strengthen the development to createmore employment opportunities in the future. In order to improve theeffect of the third industry on employment in Tibet, we proposed tochanging employment idea, improving the quality of the laborers,speeding up the process of urbanization from the perspective of the thirdindustry as a whole. From the Angle of internal industry,we suggestdeveloping the labor-intensive industry, strengthening the development ofproducer services, paying attention to the development of emergingservices.These employment policy recommendations help to improve theeffect of the third industry in Tibet on employment in the quality andquantity.
KEY WORDS: Tibet,third industries, employment effect, empiricalanalysis
目录
第一章 绪论
第一节 研究背景
第二节 研究目的与意义
第三节 研究方法与创新
第四节 研究思路及逻辑框架
第二章 概念界定及理论综述
第一节 第三产业与就业效应的概念界定
一、第三产业及其内部行业
二、就业效应
第二节 国外产业与就业理论综述
一、配第-克拉克定律
二、费景汉-拉尼斯模型
三、富克斯的服务经济理论
第三节 国内第三产业与就业问题研究
一、第三产业与就业效应
二、第三产业各行业与就业效应
三、西藏第三产业发展
四、西藏第三产业与就业效应
第三章 西藏第三产业影响就业变化的事实分析
第一节 西藏劳动力在三次产业间转移的特征
一、西藏产业与就业结构分析
二、西藏劳动力的转移趋势
第二节 西藏第三产业就业吸纳能力分析
一、就业吸纳弹性
二、产业结构偏离度
第三节 西藏第三产业内部各行业就业吸纳能力分析
一、各行业就业结构分析
二、各行业就业吸纳弹性
第四章 西藏第三产业就业效应的实证分析
第一节 西藏第三产业就业效应的回归分析
一、第三产业增加值与就业人数的回归分析
二、 三次产业增加值与总就业人数的回归分析
三、 第三产业就业效应的回归总结
第二节 西藏第三产业内部各行业就业效应的回归分析
一、 数据与模型的选取
二、 各主要行业增加值与第三产业就业人数的回归分析
三、 各主要行业增加值对第三产业就业人数的整体回归分析
第五章 西藏第三产业提高就业效应的政策建议
第一节 引导一产剩余劳动力向三产转移
第二节 大力发展批发零售业、住宿餐饮业
第三节 稳定发展交通运输、仓储及邮政业
第四节 顺应市场发展金融业、房地产业
参考文献
致谢
