摘要
本文旨在通过引入自有品牌服装零售管理为主体, 对目前的服装零售企业在销售计划, 销售预测和买货管理等进行介绍, 结合本人在实际工作中对买货管理的经验,分享在工作中对销售计划制订,销售预测和买货管理等的理解，供部分在买货管理上还在摸索和改进的企业借鉴和交流。
随着中国经济从高速增长，越来越多的国外 SPA(自有品牌服装企业)公司进入中国，而本土的一些自由品牌服装公司遭受的的冲击最为明显。外加网络电商的步步紧逼，可以说对于以百货商场和自有实体店为主要销售渠道的自有品牌服装连锁企业,受到了同渠道的和渠道替代者的双重压力。伴随着竞争的加剧和销售下降, 传统服装零售企业的库存不断攀升。特别是一些国内自有品牌，如李宁，森马，七匹狼等。国内着名运动休闲品牌的库存最近都一直维持高位，以至于承重的流动资金压力影响了企业的正常经营。这些问题暴露出部分零售企业在销售预测和买货管理上的粗放，这些粗放的管理方式已经不适合现在的激烈的竞争环境了。那么如何来更好的制订销售计划，如何来使制定的销售计划被团队接受，从而更好地控制买货数量和金额是我们目前需要进行研究和探讨的。
我们可以看到国外的一些自有品牌服装连锁企业的销售计划和预测，买货控制还是做的比较完善，相对于国内本土品牌他们在全年计划，计划会议，买货控制和执行方面都有着诸多可以借鉴之处。因此本人借此机会分享本人在连锁服装经营企业商品计划上的经历和经验，对一些销售计划和买货管理的方法进行介绍，这些方法有助于提高销售预测和买货计划的准确度，帮助企业降低营运资本压力和库存风险。
关键词:销售计划；销售预测；买货管理
Abstract
The thesis is aimed at introducing the intake management for chain retailer ofgarments. Which providing a fairly unique view on sales plan, sales forecast, intakemanagement, combined with writer’s experience in merchandise planning.
With the background of the accelerated development of retail market, more globalbrand of SPA(Speciality Retailer of Private Label Apparel). Like GAP, H&M, ZARA.
They are not only brought the latest fashion merchandise for Chinese market, also the newstructure for retail model of garments.
Good business model with so many fans, bunch of domestic brand be created. Copythe SPA model and group fast in previous years. But Chinese economic is come down. Allof a sudden, some of the fast fashion and sporty brand figure out their stock is ear to ear.
Heavy pressure of working capital nearly kills the chain retailer of garments. But not allbrand with same problem. Compare with domestic brand, their globe competitor is stillgrouped up faster. Better merchandise and follow the fashion trend closely is only one side.
On the other side of the coin, they have constantly managing their intake with goodplanning and forecasting process. Their aim is to hold zero old merchandise in end ofseason. For this goal, they have strong merchandise planning team and intake managementtool. In this thesis, writer will introduce what some chain retailer did for their salesforecast and managing their intake. How they calculate value and QTY for each month. Allthe introducing is for reader to understand all process of intake management for garments.
Writer hope the thesis can be a key for reader. Let they open their mind to thinking our-sideof their current work.
In section II, introduce the process for sales plan, which is the base for intakemanagement. In section IV, writer introduce the basic statistics for sales forecasting, andhow their work in Sales Per SQM model and multiple model. It is the best reword forwriter that the reader could find some solution for their forecasting and intake managementfor their business.
Keywords: Sales Plan; Intake Management; Sales forecast;
目 录
摘要
Abstract
第 1 章 绪论
1.1 本文研究的背景
1.1.1 SPA 服装企业
1.1.2 国内 SPA 服装企业的现状
1.2 国内 SPA 服装企业存在的主要问题
1.3 本文研究的意义
第 2 章 SPA 零售服装企业买货流程
2.1 买货管理流程
2.1.1 买货团队组合 PMA
2.1.2 零售服装采购循环
2.2 销售计划制定流程
2.2.1 零售服装企业的组织架构
2.2.2 销售计划循环
2.2.3 计划会议
第 3 章 SPA 服装零售企业买货管理方法
3.1 买货管理介绍
3.2 标签价格销售比例法
3.3 总额倒推法
3.4 OTB 法
第 4 章 买货管理中的销售预测和库存设定
4.1 销售预测的影响因素
4.2 销售预测的程序
4.3 销售预测的方法
4.3.1 总体层次
4.3.2 产品层次
4.3.3 预测结果的衡量和案例
4.4 库存的设定
第 5 章 结论
参考文献
