摘 要
自 20 世纪末以来，随着我国经济的快速发展，产能过剩日益成为河北省建设“工业强省”和产业结构转型升级的一大难题，同时也给河北省的经济发展带来了一系列的消极影响。目前，在河北省的各大产业当中，无论是在钢铁、水泥、平板玻璃、电解铝、有色金属等传统产业还是在光伏产业、风电、多晶硅等新兴产业当中都存在着不同程度的产能过剩问题，其中钢铁行业的产能过剩问题尤为突出。作为传统工业大省的河北省，随着改革开放以来经济的迅猛发展，钢铁产量持续增长，成为我国钢铁产量最大的省份，占据全国钢铁产量的四分之一以上，因此还出现了钢铁产量“世界第一，中国第二，河北第三”的说法。然而，自从 2008 年世界性金融危机以来，我国经济整体发展比较缓慢，经济整体下行压力大，无论是国内市场还是国际市场，对钢铁的需求量都有明显下降。在钢铁的供给量持续增长而需求量明显下降的情况下，河北省的钢铁行业就出现了严重的产能过剩，而且具有结构性过剩和阶段性过剩并存的特征。
钢铁行业产能严重过剩，给河北省钢铁行业乃至整个国民经济的发展带来了极大的危害。首先，由于钢铁行业产能严重过剩，钢铁企业的销售额逐年下降，利润率大幅度下滑，很多钢铁企业持续亏损；其次，在钢铁行业产能严重过剩的情况下，很多竞争力较小的中小型钢铁企业被兼并甚至破产，大量工人面临着失业的风险。这样不仅会影响人们的正常生活，还会增加社会的负担；最后，作为钢铁大省，钢铁产能严重过剩必然会给河北省带来一系列的环境问题。由于钢铁生产过程中产生了烟尘二氧化硫等污染物，使得河北省的空气质量连年下降，雾霾天气愈来愈多，最终会给人们的身体健康和生活质量带来危害。
在京津冀协同发展的背景下，河北省面临着承接北京和天津产业转移的重大任务，要实现在承接这些产业的同时更好地发展自己，实现产业的转型升级，河北省必须解决产能过剩这一难题，因此，从钢铁行业角度研究河北省的产能过剩问题，对治理河北省产能过剩，促进河北经济结构转型升级，促使河北省从钢铁大省转变为钢铁强省，推进河北“工业强省”目标的实现具有重要的现实意义。本文依据产能过剩的基本理论，在对河北省钢铁行业发展历程及产能过剩现状、特点等实证研究的基础上，分析了钢铁行业产能过剩形成的深层次原因，并借鉴国外钢铁行业产能过剩治理的经验，提出了一系列治理产能过剩的对策建议。本文从以下七个部分进行论述：
第一部分：产能过剩相关概念界定和理论研究概述。这部分首先界定产能过剩的内涵、评价指标及特征，分析比较了产能过剩与生产过剩、产量过剩等概念，提出了这些之间的异同点。同时，介绍了产能过剩的相关理论，主要包括资本循环和资本主义生产过剩理论、产业生命周期理论、投资过剩理论和软预算约束理论。
第二部分：河北省钢铁行业的发展历程和现状。这部分主要介绍了新中国成立以来河北省钢铁行业经历的三个发展阶段，即体系确立阶段、行业反复调整阶段及新发展阶段。在此基础上分析了河北省钢铁行业的优势和不足。
第三部分：河北省钢铁行业产能过剩现状分析。这部分主要介绍了河北省钢铁行业产能过剩的表现、特征以及产能过剩的危害等相关内容。
第四部分：河北省钢铁行业产能过剩的成因分析。这部分从政府、市场和企业三个层面探讨了河北省钢铁行业产能过剩产生的原因，这些原因既包括政府的投资冲动，产业发展政策不合理；市场的进入退出机制不健全，供需矛盾严重失衡；又包括企业的技术水平落后、产品同质化、片面追求规模竞争效应等原因。
第五部分：国外钢铁行业产能过剩治理的经验借鉴与启示。这部分主要介绍了美国、日本两个国家产能过剩的历史和治理产能过剩的方法和措施，总结了其产能过剩治理的经验，在此基础上探讨了国外产能过剩的治理带给我们的启示。
第六部分：推进河北省钢铁行业治理产能过剩的对策建议。这部分从供给和需求两个方面提出了推动政府、市场和企业三个主体治理钢铁行业产能过剩的对策建议。主要包括：转变政府职能，实现绿色 GDP 考核机制、完善化解过剩产能的政策法规体系；完善市场进入和退出机制、利用大数据平台，强化过剩产能的跟踪治理；大力推进科技创新，促进产品结构优化和提升品质绩效、推进钢铁行业供给侧结构性改革等。
第七部分：结论。这部分对论文文的主要观点进行了概括，并且指出了在研究过程中存在的一些不足之处，为将来进一步深入研究河北省钢铁行业产能过剩问题奠定了基础。
关键词：河北省 钢铁行业 产能过剩 成因 对策建议
Abstract
Since the end of the 20th century, with the rapid development of our economy,overcapacity becomes the difficulty for of Hebei province to the transformation andupgrading of industrial structure. And it has brought a series of negative influences. To theeconomic development of Hebei province. At present, whether in the steel, cement, plate glass,aluminum, non-ferrous metals and other traditional industries or in the photovoltaic industry,wind power, polysilicon and other new industries there are different levels of excess capacityof contradictions, and iron and steel industry overcapacity problem is particularly prominent.
With the rapid development of the economy the reform and opening up, as a traditionalindustry in Hebei province, the steel production continues to grow, and become the largestprovince in China's steel production, accounted for more than a quarter of the national steelproduction. So steel production also be called “the first in world, the second in China's andthird in hebe”.However, since the financial crisis in 2008, because of the slower overalleconomic development in our country and the overall economic downward pressure, both inthe domestic market and international market, the demand for steel has declined obviously.
Sustained growth in steel supply and demand in the situation, the steel industry in Hebeiprovince has been a serious excess capacity, and has the characteristics of structural surplusand periodic surplus coexist.
Severe overcapacity, iron and steel industry to the development of steel industry in Hebeiprovince and even the entire national economy has brought great harm. First, since the ironand steel industry of excess capacity, the sales of iron and steel enterprises declined year byyear, margin sharply decline, a lot of iron and steel enterprise continuing losses; Second,under the condition of severe overcapacity in the steel industry, a lot of competitive small andmedium-sized iron and steel enterprises mergers or even bankruptcy, the risk of a largenumber of workers facing unemployment. This will not only affect the normal life of people,also can increase the social burden; Finally, as a big province of steel, steel seriousovercapacity will inevitably bring a series of environmental problems in Hebei province.
Sulfur dioxide that the smoke and dust produced in the process of iron and steel productionpollutants makes the air quality declining. Haze weather more and more eventually givebrought harm people's health and quality of life.
Under the background of the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Hebeiprovince faces and undertakes the important task of Beijing and Tianjin industry transfer, inorder to realize the undertake the industry to better develop themselves. At present, the excesscapacity is a big problem restricting the development of economy in Hebei province,especially the iron and steel industry overcapacity. Therefore, from the Angle iron and steelindustry to study the overcapacity problem in Hebei province. And it has important practicalsignificance on promoting transformation and upgrading of economic structure in Hebei,prompting from the big province of steel to steel strong province in Hebei province.
According to the basic theory of excess production capacity, the steel industry in Hebeidevelopment course and the present situation of excess production capacity, features, etc, onthe basis of empirical study, analyzes the underlying reasons for the formation of overcapacityin the steel industry, and based on the experience of the foreign iron and steel industryovercapacity management, put forward a series of management countermeasures of excesscapacity, this paper discusses from the following seven parts:
The first part: the overcapacity relevant concept definition and theoretical analysis. Thispart first defined the connotation of excess production capacity, evaluation index andcharacteristics; analysis and comparison of excess production capacity, overproduction andexcess production concept, the similarities and differences between these concepts are putforward. At the same time, this paper introduces the related theory of excess productioncapacity, mainly includes the capital circulation and the theory of capitalism overproduction,industry life cycle theory, excess investment theory and soft budget constraint theory.
The second part: the development course and the present situation of the iron and steelindustry in Hebei province. This part mainly introduces the iron and steel industry in Hebeiprovince since the founding of new China experienced three stages of development, namelythe system establishment stage, industry adjustment stage and the new stage of development.
Analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the iron and steel industry in Hebei province.
The third part: Hebei iron and steel industry overcapacity situation analysis. This partmainly introduces the performance and characteristics of Hebei iron and steel industryovercapacity and the dangers of excess capacity and related content.
The fourth part: the cause of Hebei iron and steel industry overcapacity. This part fromthree aspects: government, market and enterprises to explore the cause of Hebei iron and steelindustry overcapacity, the reason includes the government's investment impulse andunreasonable industrial development policy; Market entry exit mechanism is not sound, thecontradiction between supply and demand imbalance; Backward but also the technical levelof enterprises, product homogeneity, the pursuit of scale competition effect, etc.
The fifth part: iron and steel industry overcapacity governance at home and abroadexperience and enlightenment. This part mainly introduces the history of the United States,Japan, two countries with excess capacity, and governance of excess capacity summarizes theforeign iron and steel industry overcapacity management experience, based on this, discussesthe governance capacity of foreign experience to our enlightenment.
The sixth part: Suggestions on advancing the governance of Hebei iron and steel industryovercapacity. This part from two aspects of supply and demand put forward to promote thegovernment, market and enterprise three main management Suggestions on iron and steelindustry overcapacity. Mainly includes: the transformation government function, realizing thegreen GDP evaluation mechanism, perfect the system of the excess capacity of policies andregulations; Improve the market entry and exit mechanism, deepen the annexation andreorganization, improve industrial concentration; Vigorously promote scientific andtechnological innovation, and promote the product structure optimization and qualityperformance, real transformation of the mode of development and promote upgrading of theindustry.
The seventh part: conclusion. This part of the main ideas of this article has carried on thesummary, and points out the exist some disadvantages in the process of research; overcapacityproblem laid a solid foundation for future study.
Key Words: Hebei Province The iron and steel industry Overcapacity Cause offormation Countermeasures and Suggestions
目 录
中文摘要
Abstract
引 言
（一） 研究背景及意义
1. 研究背景
2. 研究意义
（二） 国内外研究现状
1. 国外研究现状
2. 国内研究现状
（三） 研究内容及方法
1. 研究内容
2. 研究方法
（四） 论文的重点、难点及创新点
1. 论文重点
2. 论文难点
3. 论文创新点
一、产能过剩相关概念界定和理论研究概述
（一） 相关概念界定
1. 产能过剩的内涵及评价指标
2. 产能过剩的主要特征
3. 产能过剩与生产过剩、产量过剩的比较
（二） 相关理论研究
1. 资本循环和资本主义生产过剩理论
2. 产业的生命周期理论
3. 投资过剩周期理论
4. 软预算约束理论
二、河北省钢铁行业的发展历程及现状
（一） 河北省钢铁行业发展历程
1. 体系确立阶段（1949-1978）
2. 行业反复调整阶段（1979-2000）
3. 全面深化阶段（2001-至今）
（二） 河北省钢铁行业的优势
1. 历史悠久、门类齐全
2. 具备行业规模优势
3. 拥有完备的各类钢铁生产系统
4. 国内领先的钢铁工业技术水平
（三） 河北省钢铁行业的不足
1. 产业布局不合理
2. 产业集中度低，规模较小
3. 产品质量低且产品附加值低
4. 资源控制力弱，资源进口依存度高
三、河北省钢铁行业产能过剩现状
（一） 河北省钢铁行业产能过剩的表现
1. 低产能利用率
2. 低利润率
3. 高负债率
（二） 河北省钢铁行业产能过剩的特征
1. 产能过剩的结构性特征
2. 产能过剩的阶段性特征
（三） 河北省钢铁行业产能过剩的危害
1. 行业波动风险增加
2. 产业良性发展的基础遭到破坏
3. 国际贸易摩擦频繁
四、河北省钢铁行业产能过剩的成因分析
（一） 政府层面
1. 政绩考核体系的误导
2. 地方政府的投资冲动
3. 产业发展政策不合理
4. 预算软约束
（二） 市场层面
1. 供需矛盾严重失衡
2. 产业集中度低，布局不合理
3. 产业进入和退出机制不健全
4. 市场机制不健全，缺乏信息共享平台
（三） 企业层面
1. 企业投资预期扭曲
2. 产品同质化程度高
3. 技术水平落后
4. 片面追求规模竞争效应
五、国外产能过剩治理的经验借鉴与启示
（一） 美国的产能过剩与应对措施
1. 美国产能过剩的历史考察
2. 美国应对产能过剩采取的措施
（二） 日本的产能过剩与应对措施
1. 日本产能过剩的历史考察
2. 日本应对产能过剩采取的措施
（三） 国外产能过剩治理的经验借鉴
1. 加大财政投资
2. 完善税收优惠政策
3. 加强政府采购力度
4. 完善社会保障体系
（四） 国外产能过剩治理的启示
1. 明确市场机制是资源配置的主体地位
2. 加强政府宏观调控和制度创新
3. 适度扩大内需
4. 建立准确的信息发布制度
六、推进河北省钢铁行业治理产能过剩的对策建议
（一） 政府层面
1. 转变政府职能，实行绿色 GDP 考核机制
2. 完善财税管理体系，规范政府投资行为
3. 完善化解过剩产能的政策法规体系
4. 重拳治理“僵尸企业”,淘汰落后产能
（二） 市场层面
1. 通过国内国际两个市场扩大有效需求
2. 实施兼并重组，提高产业集中度
3. 完善市场进入和退出机制
4. 利用大数据平台，强化过剩产能的跟踪治理
（三） 企业层面
1. 大力推进科技创新，促进产品结构优化和品质增效
2. 切实转变发展方式，促进产业优化升级
3. 积极实施“走出去”战略，加强国际产能合作
4. 推进钢铁行业供给侧结构性改革
结 论
参考文献
后 记
