摘 要
市场经济的大潮中，每一个企业都面临着激烈的竞争，企业的经营决策可以说是如履薄冰，稍有不慎就会一败涂地。特别地，由于财务危机而导致企业破产的例子不胜枚举。企业陷入财务危机是一个逐步恶化的过程。因此，财务预警的现实意义在于及时发现财务危机的信号，预测财务困境的发生，使企业在财务危机萌芽状态时采取有效措施。此外，对于外部投资者来讲，有效的财务预警措施能够使资金实现有效配置，提高资本市场的效率。
乳品行业，是内蒙古重要的支柱产业，它的健康发展，关系到我区“三农”问题的解决和国民经济可持续发展。伊利集团是诞生于我区，成长在我区的中国乳品龙头企业。选择伊利集团，考察其财务状况，可以以小见大，成为洞察整个内蒙古乳品行业财务状况的良好起点。
之所以考察伊利公司财务风险预警，因为对于乳品行业来讲，当前，我国的原料成本和食品安全环境，是影响经营业绩的重要因素，给乳业发展带来了不确定性。作者认为有必要研究如何从财务角度预测企业未来发展状况，从而降低破产的概率。这对于自治区特色、支柱产业-乳品行业持续健康快速发展具有重要意义。再者，伊利公司曾经被证监会冠以 ST,所以本文的财务预警研究可以以史为鉴，吸取教训，总结经验，建立预警模型，为企业避免再次陷入危机和后续稳定发展提供管理决策支持。
本文首先梳理财务预警的相关理论和国内外研究进展，然后对伊利公司的财务状况进行深入分析，考察了伊利公司的偿债能力、发展能力、伊利能力，营运能力。最后，文章还利用 Z 分数模型和 F 分数模型对伊利公司进行了财务预警，结果发现两个模型对伊利公司的财务困境预测能力都很强，其中 F 模型更胜一筹。
关键词：财务预警 财务分析 F 分数模型
ABSTRACT
In the tide of market economy, every enterprise is faced with fierce competition.
The enterprise management decision can be said to be on thin ice, and will be affectedby any carelessness. In particular, due to the financial crisis of enterprise bankruptcyexamples abound. Enterprise financial crisis is a progressive deterioration process.
Therefore, found that financial crisis signal in time, predict the occurrence offinancial difficulties, make the enterprise to take effective measures during thefinancial crisis in the bud is the financial early warning of practical significance. Inaddition, for outside investors, effective financial early warning measures to realizeefficient allocation of capital to improve the efficiency of capital market.
The dairy industry, is an important pillar industry in Inner Mongolia, its healthydevelopment, relates to the “three rural” development of our national economysustainable development on the solution of the problem. Yili group is born in thedistrict, grew up in our district dairy enterprises in China. Choose the yili group,inspects its finances, can view and become a good insight into the financial status ofthe dairy industry in Inner Mongolia starting point.
Yili company financial risk early warning, because for the dairy industry, atpresent, our country's raw material costs and food safety environment, are theimportant factors that affect the operating performance, brings uncertainties to thedevelopment of dairy industry. The author thinks it is necessary to study how topredict the future development of enterprise from financial Angle, thus reducing theprobability of bankruptcy. For the autonomous region characteristic and pillarindustries - in the dairy industry sustainable and healthy development is of greatsignificance. Furthermore, once the CSRC dubbed yili company ST, so financial earlywarning research of this paper can take history as a mirror, a lesson, sum upexperience, to establish early warning model, for the enterprise to avoid another crisisand subsequent stable development to provide management decision-making support.
This paper combed the related financial early warning theory and research progressboth at home and abroad, and then to yili company, analyzing the financial situationof yili company's solvency, ability development, yili, operating ability. Finally, thearticle also USES the Z score model and F score model of yili company for financialearly warning, the results showed that the two models of yili company's financialdistress prediction ability is very strong, the F model better.
Key Words: financialearly-warning financial analysis F-score.
目 录
第一章 绪论……1
1.1 选题背景和研究目的……1
1.1.1 选题背景……1
1.1.2 研究目的……1
1.2 财务预警的研究现状和发展趋势……2
1.2.1 财务危机的界定……2
1.2.2 国外研究现状和发展趋势……3
1.2.3 国内研究现状和发展趋势……5
1.3 本论文的研究思路……6
第二章 财务预警理论……7
2.1 财务预警概述……7
2.1.1 财务预警的概念……7
2.1.2 财务预警的特性分析……7
2.2 财务预警的管理理念……8
2.3 财务预警的模型……9
第三章 我国乳品行业的基本情况……13
3.1 我国乳品行业的发展状况……13
3.2 我国乳品行业的特点……13
3.3 我国乳品行业企业基本财务数据……14
3.3.1 乳品行业样本公司的选择……14
3.3.2 乳制品行业基本财务状况……15
第四章 伊利公司财务分析……16
4.1 伊利公司发展概况……16
4.2 伊利公司财务状况与财务预警分析……17
4.2.1 偿债能力与财务预警分析……17
4.2.2 营运能力与财务预警分析……19
4.2.3 盈利能力与财务预警分析……20
4.2.4 盈利能力对比分析……22
4.2.5 成长能力分析……23
第五章 伊利公司财务预警模型分析……24
5.1 财务预警模型概述……24
5.1.1 Z 分数模型……24
5.1.2 F 分数模型……25
5.2 模型预警结果……26
第六章 研究结论和建议……28
6.1 研究结论……28
6.2 建议……29
参考文献……31
致 谢……33
