摘要
随着我国经济增长方式的转型,经济增长对出口的依存度逐渐降低,投资对经济的拉动作用也逐渐疲软,这使得消费成为拉动我国经济增长的主力军,在城镇消费逐步饱和的情况下,深度挖掘农村消费刻不容缓,而在众多影响消费的因素中,金融的作用是举足轻重的,金融对消费有极大的推动作用。甘肃省作为典型的西部欠发达省份,其农村消费市场发展缓慢,如果能够借助其农村金融发展有效的开拓甘肃省农村消费市场,将会对甘肃省农村经济发展甚至国内消费的开发产生重要的现实意义。
本文首先针对国内外学者对农村金融发展对农村消费市场影响的研宄进行综述,然后回顾农村金融发展以及农村消费相关理论,梳理学者对农村金融发展理论及农村消费理论的主要论点。在此基础上,对农村金融发展对农村消费市场影响的作用机制进行理论分析,认为农村金融发展可以通过促进农村经济发展、促进农民收入增加、扩大消费需求总量、促进农村消费结构升级四方面来促进农村消费市场发展。
在实证检验之前,对甘肃省农村金融发展和农村消费市场发展现状进行分析,对甘肃省农村金融发展现状的研宄主要分为金融规模、金融效率、金融结构三个方面,对甘肃省农村消费市场的研究也分为三个方面:人均消费水平、消费差距、消费结构,针对现状指出目前甘肃省农村金融及农村消费市场存在的不足。
在实证部分,选取1988-2009年间甘肃省相关数据,运用规范分析与实证分析方法,通过建立模型以及经过单位根检验、协整检验及协整方程、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析等实证检验方法从消费需求和消费结构两个方面来研究甘肃省农村金融发展对农村消费市场发展的影响;然后,得出甘肃省农村金发展能够有效促进农村消费市场发展的结论,并给出相关改善甘肃省农村金融发展的建议,以期能为促进甘肃省农村金融市场发展提供可能的参考。
关键词:农村金融发展,农村消费,实证分析,甘肃省
Abstract
With the transformation of economic growth mode of our country, China's dependence onexports for economic growth gradually reduced,exprotion is no longer the main force to stimulatChina's economic growth., and the stimulating role of investment in the economy is graduallyweakening, this allows the consumer become the main force to drive China's economic growth. Astypical underdeveloped western provinces, the rural consumer market of the Gansu Provincedevelop slowly. It will have important practical significance for Gansu Province's rural economydevelopment and even the development of domestic consumption if the rural finance developmentcan effectively be good to the rural consumer market in Gansu Province.
Firstly, the research of scholars about rural financial impact on rural consumer marketdevelopment are reviewed, and then renewing the theory of rural finance and rural consumption,combing rural finance development and rural consumer theory. On this basis, theoreticallyanalysis rural financial development how to impact the rural consumer market. It is said that ruralfinancial can promote rural consumption market by four areas as promoting rural economicdevelopment、expanding the total consumer demand、increasing farmers' income, upgradedconsumption structure.
Prior to empirical testing, the status of Gansu rural financial development and rural consumermarket is analyzed.On the status of rural financial development in Gansu Province is divided intofinancial scale studies, financial efficiency,and financial structure,the rural consumer market inGansu Province Research mainly from per capita consumption levels,rural areas, the gap betweenurban and rural consumption, consumption structure, according the status point out shortcomingsof current rural finance and rural consumer market in Gansu Province. In the empirical section,selecting the relevant data in Gansu Province between 1988-2009,using normative and empiricalanalysis methods, as well as through the establishment of the model to do the unit root test,cointegration test and cointegration equation, Granger causality test, impulse response analysisand other empirical test methods from consumer demand and consumption structure of rural areasto study the impact of financial development in Gansu Province on the development of ruralconsumption market; then conclusion Gansu Province rural financial development can effectivelypromote the development of rural consume and give relevant improvement proposal, in order toprovide a possible reference to promoting the development of rural financial markets in GansuProvince.
Keywords: rural finance development, rural consumption,empirical analysis, the Gansu province
目录
摘要
Abstract
第一章引言
1.1研宄背景与意义
1.2研宂综述
1.2.1国外研究综述
1.2.2国内研宂综述
1.3研究内容与方法
1.3.1研宄内容
1.3.2研宄方法
1.4本文可能的创新点与不足
第二章农村金融发展与农村消费市场的理论基础
2.1农村金融发展理论
2.2农村消费市场发展理论
2.2.1凯恩斯的绝对收入理论
2.2.2杜森贝利的相对收入消费理论
2.2.3费朗科·莫迪利安尼的生命周期消费理论
2.2.4米尔·弗里德曼的永久收入消费理论
2.2.5理性预期消费函数理论
第三章农村金融发展对农村消费市场影响的机理分析
3.1开拓农村消费市场的必要性分析
3.2农村金融发展支持农村消费市场发展的途径
3.2.1农村金融发展促进农村经济发展
3.2.2农村金融发展带动农民收入增加
3.2.3农村金融发展能够扩大消费需求总量
3. 2.4农村金融发展促进农村消费结构升级
第四章甘肃省农村金融发展与农村消费市场发展现状
4.1甘肃省农村金融发展现状
4.1.1甘肃省农村金融规模
4.1. 2甘肃省农村金融效率
4.1.3甘肃省农村金融结构
4. 2甘肃省农村消费市场发展现状
4.2.1甘肃省农村居民消费水平
4.2.2甘肃省城乡消费差距
4.2.3甘肃省农村消费结构
第五章甘肃省农村金融发展对农村消费市场影响的实证检验..26
5.1甘肃省农村金融发展对农村消费需求影响的实证检验
5,2甘肃省农村金融发展对农村消费结构影响的实证检验
第六章政策建议
6.1扩大农村金融机构信贷规模,提高农民消费需求
6.2提高农村金融效率,促进农村消费结构升级
6.3完善农村金融体系,缩小城乡消费差距
参考文献
致谢
