摘 要
从 2004 年开始，我国房地产价格总体呈现上涨趋势，并出现了局部过热的现象。与此同时，北京、上海、深圳等大城市房地产价格也呈快速上涨趋势，这引起了国家的高度关注，并出台了一系列政策措施，来抑制房地产价格的过快膨胀，使得房地产市场有了一些积极改变，但部分城市的房地产价格仍呈快速上涨的趋势，货币政策调控效果不理想，这对我国国民经济的健康运行带来了巨大的负面影响，找到有效调控房地产价格的货币政策迫在眉睫。同时，我国幅员辽阔，各城市的地理环境、经济发展水平等各方面存在巨大差异，这使得我国房地产价格存在明显的城市差异，因此，为了使国家政策能够有效调控房地产价格，研究货币政策对房地产价格影响的城市差异性就显得尤为重要。
本文第一部分是对货币政策及房地产价格相关理论概述。先对货币政策的一般问题进行了简要介绍；接着介绍了房地产价格的定义，从理论上概述了房地产价格的影响因素，最后，简要分析了我国货币政策对房地产价格的影响机理。
第二部分介绍了我国房地产价格发展变动历程及成因。本章中包含两部分内容：一是从全国层面和各城市的角度，对我国房地产价格波动特征进行了阐述，二是从供给、需求的角度，介绍了我国房地产价格变动的成因。
第三部分是对房地产价格对货币政策的反应程度进行了实证分析。首先进行实证方法的选择，包括平稳性检验、协整检验、向量误差修正模型、Granger 因果检验、面板数据模型。其次确定变量和数据，最后运用上述方法从全国和城市两个层面对我国货币政策对房地产价格的影响进行实证分析：即，先从全国层面分析我国货币政策对房地产价格的影响程度，然后对我国城市按照一二三四线的标准进行划分，并选择其中的 35 个大中城市作为研究对象来分析我国货币政策对不同类型城市房地产价格的影响差异。
第四部分对主要研究结论进行归纳，并针对分析结果提出相应的政策建议：第一，货币政策的制定要有针对性、有差异性； 第二，进一步完善落后城市的金融体系，推动经济稳步向前；第三，配合其他政策法规，促进房地产市场健康发展。
关键词：货币政策 房地产价格 面板数据模型 城市差异
ABSTRACT
Since 2004, our country appears the trend that the price of the real estate rises .Atthe same time, a phenomenon that the price of the real estate of some cities overheatingoccurs. Meanwhile, the price of the real estate of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen andmany other cities rises rapidly, which causes our country's high attention. Therefore, ourcountry introduces a series of policy and measures to curb the price of the real estateexpanding excessively fast. Thanks to those policies, they bring some positive changes tothe real estate market. But in some cities, the increasing speed of the price of the realestate hasn't been changed. The effect of monetary policy is not ideal, which has anegative impact on the function of our national economy. Thus, it is extremely urgent tofind an effective method to adjust to the the price of the real estate. On the other hand,our country is with a vast territory, and there are huge differences between cities in theaspects of geographical environment and the development of economy. As a result, thereexist obvious differences in the price of real estate between cities. In consequence, it isparticularly important to study the different relation in cities between monetarypolicy and the price of the real estate so that our policy can have an effective control onthe the price of the real estate.
First of all, this article introduces the theory of monetary policy and the price of thereal estate. It begins with brief recommend of the theory of monetary policy. And then, itgive a description of the definition of the price of the real estate. After that, it summarizesthe influence factors of the price of the real estate in theory. Finally, it introduces theinfluence mechanism of monetary policy on the real estate briefly.
Secondly, this article introduces the process and the causes of the development ofthe price of the real estate in our country. First of all, it gives a statement of thecharacteristic of price fluctuation of the real estate from the perspective of the cities andoverall. At last, it puts forward the factors of the change of the price of the real estate.
Thirdly, this article makes an empirical analysis on that the monetary policy impacton the price of real estate. It introduces empirical method first, which include stationaritytest, cointegration test, vector error correction model, Granger causality test, and Paneldata model. Then, it determines variables and data it uses. Finally, it uses the abovemethods to give an empirical research in monetary policy's impact on the price of the realestate in two aspects: on one hand, give an analysis of the influence of monetary policyon the price of the real estate on the whole. On the other hand, according to the standardsof one-two-three-four line, all the cities in our country can be devided into four types,and choose thirty-five large cities from them as the object of the research to analyze thedifferent effect of monetary policy on the price of the real estate between the cities..Finally, this artical summarizes the main conclusion of empirical analysis, and givethe corresponding policy and recommendations: First, monetary policy must be targetedand discrepant; Second, improve the financial system in behind cities, and promotesteady economy. Third, cooperate with other methods, and accelerate the healthydevelopment of the real estate market.
Key words : Monetary policy Price of the real estate Panel data modelDifferences between the cities
目 录
摘要
ABSTRACT
绪论
0.1 选题背景及研究意义
0.1.1 选题背景
0.1.2 研究意义
0.2 国内外研究综述
0.2.1 国外研究综述
0.2.2 国内研究综述
0.2.3 文献评述
0.3 研究思路与方法
0.3.1 研究思路
0.3.2 研究方法
0.4 论文的创新点与不足之处
0.4.1 论文的创新点
0.4.2 本文的不足之处
1 我国货币政策及房地产价格相关理论概述
1.1 货币政策和房地产价格的一般问题
1.1.1 货币政策的一般问题
1.1.2 房地产价格的一般问题
1.2 货币政策对房地产价格的影响机理
1.2.1 货币政策调控房地产价格的政策工具
1.2.2 货币政策影响房地产价格的机理分析
2 我国房地产价格发展变动历程及成因分析
2.1 我国房地产价格波动特征
2.1.1 中国房地产价格的变动历程
2.1.2 我国各城市房地产价格的发展变动历程
2.2 我国房地产价格发展变动成因分析
2.2.1 需求角度
2.2.2 供给角度
3 我国货币政策对房地产价格影响的计量分析
3.1 研究方法的选择
3.1.1 平稳性检验
3.1.2 协整检验
3.1.3 格兰杰因果检验
3.1.4 向量误差修正模型
3.1.5 面板数据模型
3.2 变量的确定与选择
3.3 我国货币政策对全国房地产价格一般水平的影响程度分析
3.3.1 数据的收集与处理
3.3.2 实证分析结果与讨论
3.4 我国货币政策对不同类型城市房地产价格影响程度分析
3.4.1 城市的划分
3.4.2 数据的收集与处理
3.4.3 实证分析结果与讨论
4 结论与政策建议
4.1 主要研究结论
4.1.1 货币政策对房地产价格的长期影响
4.1.2 货币政策对房地产价格的短期影响
4.2 政策建议
参考文献
致谢
