摘 要
我国计划生育工作的深入开展，虽然取得了举世瞩目的成就，但自 1992 年起，生育率便呈现不断下降趋势，且一直处在人口自然更替水平以下。为改善这一现状，提升生育率水平，中共十八届三中全会对生育政策做出了重大调整，于 2014 年在全国范围内陆续实施“单独二胎”政策。截至 2014 年底，这一新政策在全国各省全面落实。然而，“单独二胎”政策的实施是否能够改善我国生育率过低的现状，以达到政府调整生育政策的初衷，将成为现阶段急需关注的问题。因而，本研究选取长春市已生育一胎的“单独夫妻”的再生育意愿进行调查分析，以预测“单独二胎”政策实施后长春市生育率的变化趋势，从而为我国整个生育率发展趋势的预判提供参考。
本研究通过文献资料法、调查问卷法、访谈法以及数理统计法，对长春市已生育一胎的“单独夫妻”的生育意愿进行了调查，结果显示：长春市大多数“单独夫妻”属 80 后，正值育龄阶段，但二胎生育意愿并不强烈。通过对生育意愿进行分析影响他们生育二胎的因素主要包括：生育成本因素；职业发展因素；新生育观念因素；家庭因素及其他因素。与此同时，针对这些影响因素本研究提出了相应的解决对策。研究认为长春市“单独二胎”政策实施后将不会出现一些学者们所担心的扎堆现象，反而有可能达不到开放“单独二胎”政策的目的。因此，政府应实行更为开放的生育政策，以真正提升生育水平，促进人口健康发展。
关键词：长春市 “单独二胎”政策 生育意愿 影响因素
Abstract
China's family planning work in depth, although has made remarkable achievements,but since 1992, the fertility rate is declining trend, and has been in the natural populationbelow the replacement level. To improve this situation, enhance the fertility rate level,plenary session of CPC to the family planning policy made major adjustments, in 2014 inthe nationwide continue to implement separate two child policy. As of the end of 2014, thefull implementation of the new policy in the provinces. However, separate two child policyimplementation is able to improve the status quo of China's fertility rate is too low, in orderto achieve the original intention of the government to adjust birth policy, will become thepresent urgent attention. Therefore, this study selected Changchun City has given birth toone child's husband and wife alone the regeneration of fertility intention investigation andanalysis, to predict the trend of the rate of fertility in Changchun City after theimplementation of the “second single child policy changes, So as to provide reference forthe prediction of the development trend of the whole fertility rate in our country.
This study through the literature material law, investigation questionnaire, interviewand mathematical statistics, in Changchun City fertility fertility desires of a child's husbandand wife alone were investigated. The results showed that: Changchun City most of thecouple alone ”is a 80, of childbearing age in the positive phase, but second birth will is notstrong. Through the analysis of the impact of their second child factors mainly include thefertility desire: fertility cost factors; factors of career development; new ideas on the familyfactors; family factors and other factors. At the same time, in view of these factors thisstudy put forward the corresponding countermeasures. Studies have found that ChangchunCity alone child “policy after the implementation will be some scholars worry aboutgathers together the phenomenon does not appear, but may not have to open the secondsingle child policy. Therefore, the government should implement a more open policy, totruly improve the fertility level, and promote the healthy development of population.
Key words: Changchun city ”selective two-child“policy Fertility desireInfluence factors
目 录
摘 要
Abstract
第一章 绪 论
1.1 研究背景
1.2 研究意义
1.2.1 理论价值
1.2.2 现实意义
1.3 研究思路
1.4 研究方法
1.4.1 文献资料法
1.4.2 问卷调查法
1.4.3 访谈法
1.4.4 数理统计法
第二章 研究综述
2.1 国外研究综述
2.2 国内研究综述
2.2.1 不同群体的生育意愿研究
2.2.2 生育意愿的影响因素研究
2.2.3 生育意愿和生育行为之间的关系研究
2.2.4 同一群体的追踪研究
2.2.5 生育意愿的理论研究
2.3 评述
第三章 理论基础与概念界定
3.1 理论基础
3.1.1 适度人口理论
3.1.2 人口长期均衡发展理论
3.1.3 家庭发展理论
3.2 概念界定
3.2.1 “单独二胎”政策
3.2.2 “单独夫妻”
3.2.3 生育意愿
第四章 调查与分析
4.1 调查情况
4.1.1 问卷调查情况
4.1.2 访谈调查情况
4.1.3 小结
4.2 再生育意愿影响因素分析
4.2.1 生育成本因素分析
4.2.2 职业发展因素分析
4.2.3 新生育观念因素分析
4.2.4 家庭因素分析
4.2.5 其他因素分析
第五章 对 策
5.1 引导群众进行合理生育，将经济和生育统筹兼顾协调发展
5.2 重视女性职业发展问题，优化女性生育待遇
5.3 倡导鼓励给予男性产假制度，从而减轻妇女的生育负担及压力
5.4 建立社区幼儿托管机构，保证学前儿童入托需求
5.5 加强生育服务保障，提高出生人口素质
致 谢
参考文献
