目录
摘要
Abstract
1 引言
1.1 研究背景
1.2 研究意义
1.3 研究思路、方法和数据来源
1.3.1 研究思路
1.3.2 研究方法
1.3.3 数据来源
1.4 研究内容及框架
1.5 主要创新点
2 文献综述
2.1 债务危机的界定
2.2 主权债务危机的根源及影响
2.2.1 新兴经济体主权债务危机成因
2.2.2 发达经济体主权债务危机成因
2.2.3 发达经济体主权债务危机的影响及救助
2.3 新兴经济体与发达经济体主权债务成因比较
3 主权债务危机的理论基础
3.1 罗默模型
3.2 二阶段模型
4 主权债务危机实证指标选取与模型构建
4.1 指标选取
4.2 数据选取
4.3 主权债务危机模型构建
4.4 基于新兴经济体数据的实证结果分析
4.5 基于发达经济体数据的实证结果分析
4.6 新兴经济体与发达经济体主权债务危机成因比较
5 结论与启示
参考文献
致谢
摘要
从 1980 年至 2009 年间，主权债务危机由新兴经济体蔓延到发达经济体。
1980s 年代拉丁美洲是爆发主权债务危机的主要地区，阿根廷、巴西和墨西哥等拉丁美洲的主要国家都遭受到了猛烈的冲击，欧洲发达经济体希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙、爱尔兰和意大利等国也爆发了主权债务危机。导致主权债务危机爆发的原因是什么，新兴经济体与发达经济爆发主权债务危机的原因是否相同，存在的差异又有哪些，正是本文的研究目的。
新兴经济体与发达经济体的主权债务危机成因既有共同点也有差异性。庞大的债务负担是新兴经济体与发达经济体爆发主权债务危机的重要原因。此外，导致新兴经济体和发达经济体主权债务危机原因还与国内经济状况、国际经济环境密切相关。而这些国内外经济状况的差异决定了新兴经济体与发达经济体主权债务危机爆发原因的差异性。
新兴经济体方面，以 1980s 年代拉美国家债务危机为例进行分析。拉美国家在摆脱了殖民统治以后，经济上实现了快速发展，他们力求以自身的改革创新替代殖民者遗留下的经济制度，不仅未能取得预期效果，反而导致经济结构出现偏差，且为追求经济本国经济高速发展，采取与国内实际情况不符的“三高”政策，而又因国内资金不足，只能以举借外债的方式募集资金进行投资，而投资结构不合理、回报率低导致资金回收困难，最终导致债台高筑。另外，国际上恰逢石油危机，发达国家正寻求转嫁危机的途径，在国际贸易上实行贸易保护主义的政策并压低进口商品价格，而拉美国家却实施出口替代策略，这使得拉美国家不仅未获得资金来源，反而导致自身利益受损，在墨西哥政府宣布停止偿还外债之后，拉美主权债务危机全面爆发。
发达经济体方面，以希腊、爱尔兰等欧洲五国债务危机为例。2008 年金融危机的爆发使得发达国家隐瞒的债务问题显现出来，欧洲主权债务危机率先在希腊发生就是因其政府有意隐瞒债务，以致债务累积程度最终超出了其偿还债务的能力。而后爱尔兰、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙四个国家因受希腊的影响也爆发了主权债务危机。学者对这五个国家主权债务危机的成因研究发现，欧洲主权债务危机是国内经济状况与国际经济环境共同作用的结果。从国内经济状况来看：1）这五个国家都是高福利国家，福利支出数额庞大；2）国内产业结构不合理，政府财政亏空，常年赤字；3）政府大量举债。从国际经济环境来看：1）金融危机的冲击；2）国际信用评级机构的推波助澜。
总体看来，庞大的债务量是主权债务危机爆发最重要的原因，国内经济状况和国际经济环境的影响也至关重要。根据上述理论，本文选取包含债务量与国内外经济因素的七个指标--债务（政府债务或外债总量）占 GDP 百分比、经济增长率、政府财政赤字、通货膨胀、老龄化程度、外汇总储备和净出口作为解释变量，以危机是否爆发作为被解释变量，对数据进行回归得出结果，并根据实证分析结果对比新兴经济体和发达经济体主权债务危机成因的异同，得出以下结论：
第一，新兴经济体和发达经济体主权债务危机发生都是受债务影响。债务数额巨大导致债务偿还困难，出现违约风险，是债务危机爆发的重要原因。
第二，通货膨胀和国际储备对新兴经济体债务危机有显着的影响，对发达经济体的影响不显着。通货膨胀率越严重主权债务风险就越大，国际储备越高则越不易发生主权债务风险。
第三，财政赤字和老龄化对发达经济体主权债务危机爆发的原因，而对新兴经济体债务危机爆发不存在显着的影响。财政赤字水平越高，老龄化程度越高，发生主权债务危机的风险越高。
关键字：主权债务危机；新兴经济体；发达经济体；人口老龄化；财政赤字
Abstract
From 1980 to 2009, sovereign-debt crisis from spreading to developedeconomies in emerging economies. 1980s Latin America is a major area of thesovereign-debt crisis. Argentina, and Brazil and Mexico and other Latin Americacountries have experienced a violent impact, and over the past few years, anddeveloped economies of European sovereign debt crisis broke. Leading to what wasthe cause of the sovereign debt crisis, leading emerging economies and developedeconomies of the sovereign debt crises are the same. What is the difference, is thepurpose of this study. Emerging economies and developed economies ' sovereign-debtcrisis genetic similarities and differences. Emerging economies and huge debt burdensare important reasons for the sovereign-debt crisis in advanced economies.
Sovereign debt of emerging economies and improved economies causes thedifference is determined by the domestic economy and the international economicenvironment that face them differently. Result in emerging and developed economies,sovereign debt crisis and the domestic monetary situation, the worldwide economicenvironment are closely related.
Emerging economic context, analysis by the 1980s Latin American debt crisis,for example. Latin America national in out has colonial ruled yǐ hòu, economic shàng achieved has fast development, they seeks to itself of reform innovation alternativecolonists legacy xià of old economic system, but failed to made expected effect,economic structure appeared deviation, and for pursuit economic national economichigh-speed development, take and domestic actual inconsistent of “three high” policy,and due to domestic underfunded, only to borrowed external debt of way raised fundsfor investment, but and due to investment structure not reasonable, and returns lowled to funds recycling difficult, eventually led to debt. In addition, coincided with theoil crisis in the world, developed countries seek scapegrace, while Latin Americancountries import substitution policies, implementing protectionist policies ofdeveloped countries in the West, making Latin American countries did not receivefunding not only will cause hurt their interests, in Mexico after the Governmentannounced that it stopped servicing its foreign debt, Latin American sovereign-debtcrisis broke out.
In advanced economies, Greece, and Ireland, such as the PIIGS debt crisis, forexample, after decades of development in these countries, the economic situation inthe country has stabilized, domestic industrial layout has also been formed. If it is notthe financial crisis of 2008, developed countries ' debt problems will probablycontinue to hide Greece's sovereign debt was due to the Government's intention toconceal, that debt accumulation levels will exceed its capacity to repay debt,sovereign debt crises lead in Greece. And Ireland, and Italy, and Portugal and Spainsovereign debt crisis broke out in four countries.
Scholars on the causes of the five countries' sovereign debt crisis found thatEurope's sovereign debt crisis is the result of the State in the economy and theinternational economic environment. Judging from the domestic monetary conditions:
1） these five countries are welfare States, and huge welfare spending; 2） unreasonabledomestic industry structure, the Government's fiscal deficit, annual deficit; 3）Government to borrow heavily. Judging by the international economic environment: 1）the impact of the financial crisis; 2） international credit-rating agencies helped.
Overall, a huge amount of debt is sovereign debt.
Overall, a huge amount of debt a sovereign debt crisis, the most prominentreason, domestic economic conditions and the impact of the global economicenvironment is also crucial. According to above theory, paper selected contains debtvolume and both at home and abroad economic factors of seven a indicators--debt（government debt or external debt total） accounted for GDP percentage, and economicgrowth, and Government financial deficit, and inflation, and aging degree, andExchange total reserves and net exports as explained variable, to crisis whetheroutbreak as was explained variable, on data for return obtained results, and accordingto empirical analysis results compared emerging economic body and developedeconomic body sovereignty debt crisis causes of similarities and differences, obtainedfollowing conclusions:
First, Emerging and advanced economies are the subject of the sovereign debtcrisis debt. Huge amount of debts leads to debt repayment difficulties, default risk isan important cause of the debt crisis broke out.
Second, inflation and international reserves have significant effects on emergingeconomies, no significant effects on developed economies. More serious sovereigndebt risk, the greater the rate of inflation, higher international reserves, sovereign debtrisk is less likely to occur.
Third, fiscal deficits and aging on the cause of the sovereign-debt crisis inadvanced economies, while emerging economies there were no noteworthy effect ofthe debt crisis broke out. Higher the level of fiscal deficits, aging, the higher thehigher the risk of a sovereign debt crisis.
Keyword: Sovereign debt crisis;Emerging economies;Advanced economies;Ageing of the population;Deficit
