摘要
受金融危机和随后的主权债务危机的影响,2011年下半年全球光伏市场增速开始逐渐放缓,供需失衡造成了全球光伏产业内众多企业的经营困境以及破产倒闭的频繁发生.而欧美国家部分企业把问题归咎于中国出口的光伏产品存在大量的倾销和补贴行为,先后对中国光伏产品采取反倾销和反补贴措施.美国在经过"双反"调查后,于2012年11月作出终裁,对于进口的中国相关光伏产品征收14. 78%-15. 97%的反补贴税和18. 32%-249. 96%反倾销税.2013年6月6日,欧盟委员会也对外宣布将对进口的中国相关光伏产品征收临时性反倾销税和反补贴税.
市场供需失衡加上欧美的"双反"措施的不利影响,2012年中国光伏产业的出口出现35%的大幅下滑,光伏企业的经营亏损持续扩大,行业内破产风险加剧.如何应对欧美光伏"双反"带来的贸易抑制和产业冲击是当前相关政府部门和行业监管者亟需解决的问题.
针对欧美光伏"双反"这一国际贸易中最新出现的问题,本文主要对国际贸易中反倾销和反补贴措施对于进口国和出口国的理论经济效应、欧美光伏"双反"对中国和欧美各自经济和相关产业带来的经济影响、国内光伏产业遭受欧美光伏"双反"的内在原因以及如何应对"双反"的建议和对策进行详细的研究和分析.
本文首先利用供需理论和国际贸易理论分析研究"双反"对出口国和进口国的经济影响进行分析,主要包括出口国的贸易限制效应、贸易偏转效应、贸易抑制效应和响应式反倾销四个方面以及进口国的贸易保护效应、产品价格价格效应和产业关联效应三种情况;接着简单描述了欧美光伏"双反"案情的发展路径并讨论了 "双反"的合理性问题,再利用中国和欧美的光伏贸易数据以及企业经营数据等信息,基于之前的理论效应研究详细分析了光伏"双反"对中国和欧美双方产生的经济影响;在此基础上,本文利用产业生命周期理论、产业链价值理论、产业链分布以及基于GEM模型的层次分析法,从产业链结构、产业竞争力和产业发展环境三个角度,进一步探究国内光伏产业遭受欧美光伏"双反"的内在原因;根据之前研究结果,本文又从企业的经营角度和政府的长期规划发展的角度提出应对"双反"危机和促进产业合理有序发展的对策和建议以作借鉴参考.
最后,本文对所论述的内容进行了归纳总结,认为欧美光伏"双反"是双输的结果,不仅会对中国的光伏贸易出口产生严重的冲击,欧美光伏产业的上游和下游也会因为产业关联效应而受到损害;而国内光伏产业遭受欧美光伏"双反"的内在原因主要是光伏产业链的结构和分布不合理,归根结底是光伏产业的缺少长期有效的激励和监管政策;因此,对于眼下的欧美"双反"危机,国内需要企业和政府两个方面着手,强调企业经营模式的转变和核心技术能力的提高以及政府有效的长期产业规划、市场培育和监管政策的推行.
关键词:光伏;"双反";经济效应;产业链
Abstract
Due to the influence of the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent sovereign debtcrisis, in the second half of 2011, growth of photovoltaic industry began to slow down,and the imbalance of supply and demand caused many enterprises' in the photovoltaicindustry operation difficulties and frequent collapses. However, some companies inEU and the United States blamed the condition on China's exports of photovoltaicproducts in which there are a lot of dumping and subsidies. After anti-dumping andcountervailing duty survey, the United States, in November 2012 made a finaldecision that it will impose countervailing duties of 14.78%-15.97% and 18.32%-249.96% anti-dumping duties on the imports of Chinese photovoltaic products. OnJune 6,2013, the EU commission also announced temporary anti-dumping duties andcountervailing duties will be imposed on the imported photovoltaic products fromChina.
Due to supply and demand imbalance in the market and the negative impact ofthe anti-dumping and countervailing measures by EU and the United States, in 2012China's photovoltaic industry exports fell sharply 35%, photovoltaic enterprise'soperating losses continue to expand, bankruptcy risk intensified in the industry. Howto deal with the trade restrain and industry impact brought about by the anti-dumpingand countervailing measures is the current issue that relevant government departmentsand industry regulators need to solve.
To the latest problem in international trade of the anti-dumping andcountervailing measures by EU and the United States, this article mainly makes andetailed analysis and research on the theoretical economic impact resulted from theanti-dumping and countervailing measures, the actual impact on economics andrelevant industries in China and EU and the United States of the anti-dumping andcountervailing measures, the internal causes of domestic photovoltaic industrysuffering from anti-dumping and countervailing measures by EU and the UnitedStates and the suggestions and countermeasures about how to effectively cope withthe anti-dumping and countervailing crisis and promote the healthy and orderlydevelopment of domestic PV industry.
This article first uses the theory of supply and demand and international tradetheory to analyze economic impact on the import and export sides of anti-dumpingand countervailing measures, mainly including the trade restrictions effect, tradedeflection effect,and trade inhibition effect and responsive anti-dumping on exportingcountry as well as the trade protection effect,the product price effect and industrycorrelation effect on importing country;. And then it simply describes thedevelopment path of the anti-dumping and countervailing measures by EU and theUnited States and discusses the rationality of the case,then with trade data betweenChina and EU, the United States and business data of domestic PV corporations andother information, based on previous theoretical research it analyzes the economicimpact on China, EU and the United States resulted from anti-dumping andcountervailing measures. Then, this article with the theory of industry life cycle, thetheory of industry chain value, industry chain distribution and analytic hierarchyprocess based on the GEM model,and from three point of view of the industrialstructure, industrial competitiveness and industry development environment, furtherexplores the internal causes of domestic photovoltaic industry suffering fromanti-dumping and countervailing measures by EU and the United States. According tothe previous research results, it put forwards counteimeasures and suggestions forreference to deal with anti-dumping and countervailing crisis and promote areasonable and orderly development of domestic PV industry from the perspective ofenterprise operation and government's long-term planning and development.
Last, this article makes summary for the previous research and analysis, thinkthat it is a double-lose results of the anti-dumping and countervailing measures by EUand the United States which will not only lead to a serious impact on China's PVexports, but also harm the upstream and downstream of photovoltaic industry in EUand the United States because of industry correlation effect. And the internal causes ofthe domestic photovoltaic industry suffering from the anti-dumping andcountervailing measures by EU and the United States mainly attributes to theunreasonable structure and distribution of photovoltaic industry chain, a lack oflong-term incentive and regulatory policies in photovoltaic industry. Therefore, forthe current crisis of the anti-dumping and countervailing measures by EU and theUnited States, it is need to focus two aspects of enterprises and government,emphasizes the transformation of enterprise management mode and the improvementof core technical ability, the government's effective long-term industry planning,market cultivation and the implementation of regulatory policies.
Key Words: photovoltaics anti-dumping and countervailing economic impactindustry chain
目录
第一章引言
第一节研究背景和意义
-、 研究背景
二、 研究意义
第二节主要概念和研究范围的界定说明
一、光伏产业
二、反倾销和反补贴
三、研究范围
第三节相关文献综述
-、 反倾销的经济效应研究
二、 反补贴的经济效应研究
第四节研究方法和框架
一、研究方法
二、研面架
第二章"双反"的经济效应分析
第一节出口国的经济效应分析
一、贸易限制效应
二、贸易偏转效应
三、贸易抑制效应
四、响应式反倾销
第二节进口国的经济效应分析
-、 价格效应
二、贸易保护效应
三、消费效应
四、税收效应
五、产业关联效应
第三节小结
第三章欧美对我国光伏"双反"的影响
第一节欧美对我国光伏"双反"的概况
一、欧美对我国光伏"双反"的背景
二、欧美对华光伏"双反"的进展情况
三、欧美对华光伏"双反"的合理性分析
第二节光伏"双反"对中国的经济影响
一、贸易限制效应
二、贸易偏转效应
三、贸易抑制效应
四、响应式反倾销
第三节光伏"双反"对欧美的经济影响
一、贸易保护效应
二、产品价格效应
三、产业关联效应
第四节小结
第四章国内光伏产业遭受欧美"双反"的内在原因
第一节光伏产业链结构不合理
一、产业生命周期分析
二、光伏产业布局分啊析
三、产业链价值分析
第二节光伏产业竞争力不足
一、 基于GEM模型的评价指标选取
二、 光伏产业竞争力的AHP评估分析
第三节光伏产业发展环境的不完善
一、光伏产业发展战略不系统
二、光伏产业扶持政策不健全
三、光伏产业监管体系不明晰
第四节小结
第五章国内应对"双反"的对策和建议
第一节企业角度的对策
一、合理规避"双反"
二、开拓新兴市场
三、转变商业模式
四、提高产业核心技术
第二节政府角度的建议
一、加强政府磋商
二、加大行业监管力度,促进产业链结构调整
三、推动专业化生产和产业联合
四、扩大国内光伏市场
第三节小结
第六章 结论
第一节主要研究结论
第二节研究的局限性
参考文献
