本篇论文目录导航:
【题目】人口结构变动与消费结构的关系探究
【第一章】不同人口结构对消费结构的影响研究绪论
【第二章】人口结构对消费结构影响的理论分析
【3.1】我国人口结构与消费结构的现状
【3.2 3.3】人口自然与社会结构对消费结构影响的实证分析
【第四章】从人口结构角度促进我国消费结构合理化的措施
【参考文献】我国人口与消费结构合理化研究参考文献
中文摘要
由于我国经济长期对投资与出口高度依赖,国内消费一直处于弱势地位,最终导致有效需求不足。其实在进入 90 年代后,我国的宏观经济已经由原来的供给不足转为有效需求不足,供求状况由卖方市场逐步转向买方市场,市场需求逐渐成为经济增长的主要制约因素。为了提高国内消费在我国总需求中的比重,顺利实现我国经济增长方式的转变,有必要研究消费结构的影响因素,以完善我国消费结构。决定消费结构变化的因素很多,人口结构的变化是其中的一个重要因素。不论我国未来人口总量变化有多大,可以肯定的是,受经济增长与我国人口政策的影响,未来的人口结构将会发生较大的变化。
人口是对生活在特定社会制度、特定地区,具有一定数量和质量的人的统称,它永远处于复杂的运动之中。依据人口所具有的各种不同的自然的、社会的、经济的和生理的特征,把人口划分为性别结构、年龄结构、城乡结构与收入结构。从经济学角度来看,消费结构表现为居民消费的各种各样的消费资料(包括服务)的组合,在商品经济条件下,消费必须通过市场购买来实现,因此本文使用货币支出比例来分析消费结构。具体的将消费结构划分为吃穿住行用、实物与服务消费、国内与国外消费、网络与实体店消费、商品性消费与自给性消费等消费结构。不同类型的人有不同的消费需求,男性与女性的消费偏好不同,老年人的消费需求相对较弱,城市居民的消费支出要高于农村居民,不同来源的收入对消费的影响也不尽相同。
本文通过实证研究发现,我国居民的各分项消费具有明显的棘轮效应;地区的经济发展水平及发展速度、实际利率、城乡收入的不平等程度都对居民消费有显着影响;中年人口的增加对消费有促进作用,老年人口则有抑制作用;不同性质的收入对消费的影响程度大小不同。据此提出完善我国人口结构以提升国内消费促进我国经济可持续增长的主要措施,主要包括完善我国人口的年龄结构,全面开放二胎政策甚至准许部分家庭生育三胎,降低孩子的养育成本,减轻家庭负担;完善我国人口的性别结构,性别结构问题存在的根源在于性别歧视,要加大对女性各项权益的保障,做到事实上的男女平等,严厉打击非法胎儿性别鉴定,防止出现选择性养育情况,加强宣传教育,杜绝城市居民“传宗接代”与农村居民“养儿防老”的思想;完善我国人口城乡结构,促进人口真实城镇化;完善我国人口收入结构,建立合理税收制度、促进收入公平分配,建立完善社保政策,解决由特殊原因造成的收入不均,促进就业,使居民获得收入机会公平。同时,增加农村居民的工资性收入、提高财产性收入的比重,丰富城乡居民的收入来源,降低收入的不确定性预期,创新信贷机制,将消费欲望转化为现实购买力,增加消费,合理引导消费,减少炫耀性等不合理消费,促进消费结构合理化。
关键词:人口结构;消费结构;影响;完善
ABSTRACT
Due to the high dependence on investment and exports, domestic consumption hasbeen in a weak position, which will lead to effective demand shortage. In fact, after enteringthe 90's, the macro economy of our country has changed from the original supply shortageto the effective demand, the supply and demand situation is gradually turned to the buyer'smarket, the market demand gradually become the main restriction factor of economicgrowth. In order to improve the proportion of domestic consumption in China, thetransformation of economic growth mode, it is necessary to study the influencing factors ofconsumption structure, in order to improve the consumption structure in China. Manyfactors that determine the structure of consumption, the change of population structure isone of the important factors. No matter how big the future population changes, it is certainthat, by the impact of economic growth and China's population policy, the future populationstructure will be a big change.
The population is a general term for a certain number of people and the quality of lifein a particular social system, and it is always in a complicated movement. According to thedifferent natural, social, economic, and physiological characteristics of the population, thepopulation structure, age structure, urban and rural structure and income structure are putinto the population. From an economic point of view, the consumption structure is acombination of a variety of consumer information (including services), in the condition ofthe commodity economy, the consumer must purchase through the market to achieve, sothis paper uses the proportion of money expenditure to analyze the consumption structure.
The concrete will be divided in the consumption structure for food and clothing, housing,use, with the kind of service consumption, domestic and foreign consumption, network andstore consumer, commodity consumption and the self consumption consumption structure.
Different types of people have different consumer demand, the consumption preferences ofmen and women are different, the consumption demand of the elderly is relatively weak,the consumption expenditure of urban residents is higher than that of rural residents.
Through empirical research, we find that the partial consumption of residents in Chinahas obvious ratchet effect. The level of economic development, the development speed, thereal interest rate and the inequality degree of urban and rural income have a significanteffect on the consumption. Put forward the main measures to improve China's populationstructure to increase domestic consumption and promote the sustainable development ofeconomy in our country, including perfecting the structure of China's population, acomprehensive open two-child policy and even allow some families to have a three child,reduce the cost of raising children, reduce the family burden; improve the sex structure ofthe population in our country, cause of the problem gender structure is genderdiscrimination, to increase the protection of the interests of women, to achieve equalitybetween men and women in fact, crack down on illegal sex identification of the fetus, toprevent the emergence of selective breeding, to strengthen publicity and education, toeliminate the city residents “family” and “rural residents thought; improve the urban andrural raise children to provide against old age” of China's population structure, promotepopulation the real urbanization; improve the income of China's population structure,establish a reasonable tax system, promote the fair distribution of income, establish andimprove the social security policy, solve the special reasons caused by income inequality,promote employment, so that residents earn equal opportunity. At the same time, increasethe income of rural residents, income, increase the proportion of property income, richurban and rural residents, income sources, reduce the uncertainty of income expectations,the consumer desire to transform into real purchasing power, increasing consumption,reasonable guide consumption, less conspicuous consumption, and promote rationalconsumption structure.
Keywords: population structure;consumption structure;influence;perfection
目录
第一章 绪论
第一节 研究背景和研究意义
一、研究背景
二、研究意义
第二节文献综述
一、国外文献综述
二、国内文献综述
三、小结
第三节研究思路与研究方法
一、主要研究思路
二、主要研究方法
第四节研究框架及研究内容
一、研究框架
二、研究内容
第五节创新之处及不足
第二章 人口结构对消费结构影响的理论分析
第一节人口结构
一、人口结构的涵义
二、人口结构的种类
第二节消费结构
一、消费结构的涵义
二、消费结构的种类
第三节我国人口结构对消费结构的影响
一、我国人口自然结构对消费结构的影响
二、我国人口社会结构对消费结构的影响
第三章 人口结构对消费结构影响的实证分析
第一节我国人口结构与消费结构的现状
一、我国人口结构的现状
二、我国消费结构的现状
第二节 人口自然结构对消费结构影响的实证分析
一、模型设定与变量说明
二、变量的描述性统计与实证分析方法
三、实证分析结果
第三节人口社会结构对消费结构影响的实证分析
一、模型设定与变量说明
二、变量的描述性统计与实证分析方法
三、实证分析结果
第四章 从人口结构角度促进我国消费结构合理化的措施
第一节 我国目前消费结构存在的主要问题
一、消费结构合理化的标准
二、我国目前消费结构存在的主要问题
第二节从人口结构角度促进消费结构合理化的措施
一、完善我国人口的自然结构
二、完善我国人口的社会结构
参考文献
致谢