摘要
20世纪90年代，日本泡沫经济危机的爆发，给日本经济带来了灾难性的影响。
日本的中央银行以稳定物价为货币政策的最终目标，以中央银行的再贴现率为货币政策的主要工具。但日本货币政策的独立性较低，长期依附于政府当局的政治意愿，而且过多地受到美国的干预，导致日本的中央银行无法准确地判断经济形势，一味地追求汇率稳定，最终实行了错误的货币政策，引发了泡沫经济危机。
从经济周期的角度来看，直接引发泡沫经济危机的两次货币政策都是顺经济周期的。第一次是在经济复苏的情况下，日本中央银行加大了货币政策的扩张力度，并在随后的经济高涨时期保持了扩张的货币政策，导致了泡沫经济的形成和膨胀；第二次是在经济周期步入收缩阶段后，中央银行突然大幅度地缩紧货币政策，导致泡沫经济迅速崩溃，泡沫经济危机得以爆发。
本文共分为五个部分，各部分主要内容如下：第一部分是绪论，主要说明论文的选题意义，对相关文献进行综述，并介绍论文的结构和创新之处；第二部主要介绍日本泡沫经济的形成、膨胀、崩溃及影响，并且阐述从战后到泡沫经济，再到90年代萧条期日本货币政策的变化；第三部分主要介绍现代经济周期波动的测度方法，并通过HP滤波和“谷-谷”分析法划分出日本1960~2010年的经济周期，找出泡沫经济时期的经济周期阶段；第四部分从定性和定量两个方面分析日本的货币政策变化与经济周期波动的相关性，并给出日本泡沫经济形成与爆发的原因；第五部分给出对我国货币政策的相关建议。
通过研究发现，日本的货币政策在一定程度上滞后于经济增长率的变动，导致货币政策的效力助长了经济周期的波动幅度。尤其在80年代中后期，两次错误的货币政策分别助长了经济周期的扩张阶段和收缩阶段，导致经济大起大落，而日本的泡沫经济也在这个经济周期中，随着周期的扩张而迅速膨胀，又随着周期的收缩而迅速破灭。我国的经济形势与日本泡沫经济前的背景有许多相似之处，所以我国必须汲取日本的经验教训，始终坚持货币政策的独立性，而且要建立有效的宏观经济监控系统，还要稳健地实施货币政策。
关键词：日本泡沫经济经济周期货币政策
ABSTRACT
In the 1990s, the outbreak of the Japan's bubble economy crisis brought disastrouseffect on Japan's economy. Japan's central bank put price stability as the ultimate goal ofmonetary policy, and put central bank rediscount rate as the main tool of monetary policy.
But theindependence of Japan's monetary policy whichattached to the political will of thegovernment authorities in the long-termand suffered too much intervention from theUnited Stateswas low.Whatultimatelyresultedtowrong monetary policy hadbeenimplemented and triggered the bubble economic crisis was Japan's central bankcouldn't estimate the exact problem of economic situation and blindly pursued thestability of exchange rate.
From the point of view of the economic cycle, misguided monetary policy whichdirectly cause bubble economic crisis followed economic cycle twice. In the first time,Japan's central bank increased the strength of the expansion of the monetary policy underthe condition of the economic recovery, and kept the expansionary monetary policy innext time during the boom period. That led to the formation and expansion of the bubbleeconomy. In the second time, the central bank drastically tightened monetary policy in ashort time during the period of economic contraction. That rapidly brought about thecollapse of the bubble economy. So the bubble economy crisis has eruptedas these twocrucial reasons.
The main contents of this paper include the following five parts: The first part isintroduction, mainly illustratethe selected topic significance, the related literature review,and the structure and innovation of this paper; The second part mainly introduces theformation, the collapse and the influence of the Japan's bubble economy, andexpoundsthe evolution of Japanese monetary policy from post-war to the bubbleeconomy, and then to the recession of the 90s; The third part mainly introduces themeasurement of modern economic cycle, and divided into stages of economic cycle from1960 to 2010 in Japan through the HP filter and analysis method of “bottom to bottom”,and find out the bubble economy in which phase of the economic cycle;The fourth partdiscusses the correlation of the change of Japan's monetary policyand the fluctuation ofeconomic cycle throughthe qualitative and quantitative analysis, and explains thereasonof the outbreak of the Japan's bubble economy; The fifth partmainly gives somesuggestions to the monetary policy of China.
From the study,we can find that, Japan's monetary policy lagged behind theeconomic growth to a certain extent, and this led to the effectiveness of monetary policycontributed to the fluctuation of economic cycle; Especially in the mid and late 80s, twowrong monetary policy respectively contributed to the expansion and contraction phaseof the economic cycle, leadinggreatly ups and downs of economy;And in this economiccycle, Japan's bubble economy rapidly expand with the expansion of cycle, and thenquickly breakdown with the contraction of cycle. There are many similarities betweenthe economic situation in China and the background of Japan's bubble economy, soChina must learn experiences and lessons from Japan's monetary policy.On the one hand,we should always insist on the independence of monetary policy. On the other hand, weshould establish an effective macroeconomic monitoring system, andmoderatelyimplement the monetary policy.
Key Words:Japan's bubble economy Economic cycle Monetary policy
目录
摘要
ABSTRACT
绪论
0.1 选题意义和相关概念界定
0.1.1 选题意义
0.1.2 相关概念界定
0.2 国内外文献综述
0.2.1 对日本泡沫经济危机成因的文献综述
0.2.2 对经济周期与货币政策相关性的文献综述
0.3 论文的结构安排和创新之处
0.3.1 论文的结构安排
0.3.2 论文创新之处
1 日本泡沫经济危机及日本的货币政策概述
1.1 日本泡沫经济危机的概述
1.1.1 日本泡沫经济的形成
1.1.2 日本泡沫经济的膨胀
1.1.3 日本泡沫经济的崩溃及对日本经济的影响
1.2 日本货币政策的变化
1.2.1 “广场协议”前日本货币政策的变化
1.2.2 “广场协议”签订到泡沫经济破灭日本货币政策的变化
1.2.3 泡沫经济破灭后日本货币政策的变化
2 日本泡沫经济生成中的经济周期阶段
2.1 现代经济周期波动的测度方法
2.2 数据的选取和处理结果
3 泡沫经济危机的货币政策因素分析
3.1 日本的货币政策与经济周期的相关性分析
3.1.1 定性分析
3.1.2 定量分析
3.2 泡沫经济危机的原因分析
4 对我国货币政策的建议
参考文献
致谢
