产业生态学中环境投入产出分析研究(4)

　　4 环境投入产出分析的发展趋势
　　
　　环境投入产出分析正在从国家这个宏观层面向大宏观（如全球层面） 和次宏观（如省份/州、城市、园区等）两个层面发展。在大宏观层面，不同全球投入产出数据库间的一致性问题将是未来的一个重点研究问题。在次宏观层面，随着区域异质性、城市代谢和生态园区建设的兴起，建设次宏观区域的投入产出数据库，并将其与国家和全球投入产出数据库相对接将是未来环境投入产出分析的一个发展方向。
　　
　　随着大数据库科学的兴起[104],相关研究正在把环境投入产出分析与大数据分析方法（如前面介绍的网络分析方法）相结合，挖掘经济系统新的结构特征。将更多大数据分析方法引入环境投入产出分析领域会成为今后一个潜在研究热点。
　　
　　现有研究大部分关注传统污染物（包括温室气体）。随着国际社会对越来越多新热点物质的关注，如PM2. 5、汞和黑炭等，环境投入产出分析将会被应用到对新热点物质的研究中。
　　
　　此外，投入产出理论也开始被用于企业环境管理[105-108]和电网排放因子核算[109].由于投入产出模型可以刻画各个组成成分（如部门、企业生产过程、电网等）间的直接和间接关联关系，它在其他领域也有很大的应用和发展前景。
　　
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